5 things to watch for in French PM Barnier’s first parliamentary address

PARIS — Michel Barnier is finally revealing his cards.

The French prime minister is set to address lawmakers for the first time on Tuesday at 3 p.m. when he delivers his déclaration de politique générale.

Mystery looms over the speech. Barnier’s plans for France’s new coalition government are, as someone close to the prime minister said, “the best kept secret of the French Republic.” But what he says will carry major implications for everyone from French pensioners to European commissioners.

Here are five things to look out for:

A recipe for France’s debt 

Fixing France’s budget problems is arguably Barnier’s most pressing task. The country’s debt has ballooned in recent years, in large part due to government spending to keep the economy afloat during the pandemic. The budget deficit this year could come in above 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), a particularly unwelcome development in Brussels given that France is already under a so-called European excessive deficit procedure for falling afoul of European Union spending rules last year.

Barnier only has a few days to draw up a budget proposal for 2025, which is due next week. He must also by the end of October send Brussels a credible debt-reduction trajectory for the coming years.

A higher tax rate for big firms

While he’ll try to cut public spending, Barnier might have no choice but to also raise taxes, something he has hinted at since taking office. His government is reportedly eyeing a higher tax rate on the profits of large corporations and a new tax on share buybacks. 

These proposed tax hikes have proven a major point of tension between Barnier and President Emmanuel Macron, who lowered taxes for business shortly after his election in 2017.

Macron’s allies have repeatedly threatened to pull their support for Barnier if he raises taxes.

A harder line on migration

Barnier’s speech will reveal how far his government wants to go on fighting illegal migration.

While Barnier is seen in EU circles as a creature of Brussels given his work as the bloc’s Brexit negotiator, his political positions lean conservative — especially in terms of migration.

Barnier’s new junior Europe minister, Benjamin Haddad, told POLITICO that France plans to push Brussels to get tougher in stopping illegal migration. The country’s new hard-line interior minister, Bruno Retailleau, over the weekend also promised a to take a harder line on migration

Irrespective of Barnier’s actual position on the subject, there are political calculations at play: The survival of his government depends on the tacit support of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party. 

A division of labor

The speech will likely reveal how much Barnier wants to step in on files that, in the past, were managed by Macron directly. 

Barnier’s predecessors focused almost exclusively on domestic affairs, but given the prime minister’s pedigree as a former European commissioner and Brexit negotiator, he is expected to play an important role in Brussels.

A survival test

While there’s no legal obligation to do so, in the past most French prime ministers held confidence votes after proposing their political agenda to the National Assembly to test whether they have the support of a majority of lawmakers.

Barnier’s office confirmed that he won’t ask for a confidence vote after the speech, stressing that he is not constitutionally obliged to do so. Neither Gabriel Attal nor Élisabeth Borne — two of Barnier’s predecessors — did so.

But he will have to face the music soon enough. After winning the most seats during a snap election over the summer, the left-wing New Popular Front was denied a chance to form a government by Macron, who deemed its majority not sufficient to survive. After Macron named Barnier, the left vowed to put forward of motion of no confidence against his government.

The motion is set to be presented later this week, but the National Rally has already announced the party will not back it.

Anthony Lattier contributed to this report