Biden’s foreign policy goals slip as clock ticks

In one of his final moments on the global stage, President Joe Biden this week will aim to burnish his legacy and bolster Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign — but his top foreign policy goal may be slipping away.

Biden will this week make his last appearance at the United Nations General Assembly — a body of world leaders nervously watching this November’s U.S. elections — but his valedictory speech may be overshadowed by the rising violence in the Middle East. And as Israel’s fight with Hezbollah’s across Lebanon’s borders has fueled growing fears of a wider, regional war, it also endangers what three administration officials say has become Biden’s top priority for his remaining time in office: a Gaza cease-fire deal. All were granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly about private discussions.

Negotiations over a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war had already stalled before hundreds of pagers and walkie talkies detonated across Lebanon and Syria last week, killing more than 20 people and injuring more than 3,000 in a moment of audacious tradecraft targeting Hezbollah militants. That triggered an exchange of rockets between Israel and Lebanon and increased fears of an expanded conflict.

“President Biden has done everything he could to prevent a regional war in the Middle East. He has stood firm by Israel and his deterrence has helped prevent an escalation,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), who sits on the Foreign Relations Committee and has perhaps the closest relationship with Biden of any senator. “But the dynamics between Israel and Hezbollah have gotten harder and harder, and I’m concerned.”

“No one has worked harder for a hostage and cease-fire deal than Joe Biden and his senior aides,” Coons continued. “But I’m not optimistic we’re going to see a deal anytime soon.”

Biden plans to use his time in New York to forcefully make the case that, over the past three-and-a-half years, he fulfilled his promise of a renewed American commitment overseas after President Donald Trump’s tumultuous and confrontational time in office. But the spiking risk of war in the Middle East, combined with the ongoing war in Ukraine and lingering questions about the U.S. pullout in Afghanistan, threatens to tarnish his record and help Trump make the case that the world has become more chaotic since he left the White House in 2021.

The centerpiece of Biden’s time at the United Nations will be his Tuesday speech, in which he is expected to underscore the needs for alliances, urge the protection of democracy and call for peace in the world’s hot spots. He will also meet with a series of world leaders.

Biden began his presidency with the most foreign policy experience of any president in decades and, by many measures, his internationalist view of the world was rewarded with a series of victories. Vowing that “America was back,” Biden repaired the United States’ alliances; he helped rally nations to defy Russia’s Vladimir Putin; and he and his national security team have managed to re-open key communications channels with the globe’s rising superpower, China.

Fast-moving global events have revealed the limits of Biden’s power. And while foreign policy traditionally ranks low on voters’ concerns, the White House — and Harris’ campaign — now must manage their fallout in the heat of a competitive campaign.

That is especially true in the Middle East.

Even as tens of thousands of Israelis have surged into the streets to protest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handling of the war, the Israeli leader has continually signaled that he is prioritizing security — and the elimination of Hamas — over bringing the remaining hostages home. The operation against Hezbollah only added to the tumult.

“Biden was right to back Israel’s right of self-defense after Oct. 7, but 11 months of U.S. persuasion and entreaties have little to show for it,” said Richard Haass, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “The war continues, the hostages remain hostage, and there is no plan for what comes after in Gaza. Biden has been unwilling to take this Israeli government on to the extent necessary and to pivot to a more independent U.S. policy.”

Biden has told his national security team that reaching a cease-fire deal is his top priority for the rest of his time in office, according to the three officials. He believes it will bolster his legacy in two ways: first, that he would get credit as a peacemaker; and second, that it could ease Harris’ path to victory.

Two major issues are preventing the U.S. from moving the deal forward, according to one of the officials. Israel is demanding that it keep a limited number of soldiers along the Philadelphi Corridor, a demilitarized zone along the Egyptian border. Hamas has rejected that proposal, saying Israel must pull all of its forces out of that area. There are also significant disagreements between Israel and Hamas over the number and timing of the exchange of Palestinian prisoners for hostages.

Biden’s most trusted aides — CIA Director William Burns, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan — have made a deal their top focus. The president recently convened a meeting in the Situation Room with his national security officials and urged them to ignore recent setbacks and continue to work with both sides and third-party negotiators to find an agreement.

“Keep fucking trying,” is how Biden recently ended a meeting with the officials, according to one of the participants.

Biden administration officials plan to continue talks for a Gaza cease-fire this week — but there are few expectations that an agreement could be reached soon, according to the three officials. There is great skepticism that either Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar or Netanayhu is anxious to make a deal, and the Israeli leader’s latest demands have again raised suspicions within the White House that he wants to prolong the war to keep his own grip on power — and potentially help Trump.

Harris is not expected to attend the meetings in New York this week, although she may meet with some world leaders in Washington. Still, the global landscape she may inherit will be affected by this and other Biden administration efforts in the closing three months of his term.

The challenges Harris inherits as Democratic standard bearer will test her national security credentials just as the campaign’s homestretch begins. And for the vice president — who, to this point, has stood firm with Biden on policy but created some distance with her rhetoric — the lack of progress has created a political dilemma.

Harris has repeatedly affirmed her belief in Israel’s right to defend itself and has not suggested curtailing arms shipments to Jerusalem. But her team is mindful of anger in the Democrats’ base about the humanitarian crisis and worry that it could depress turnout among young voters, progressives and Arab American voters, particularly in a battleground state like Michigan.

She has wanted to amplify the suffering of the Palestinians and has privately pushed the administration to ratchet up the pressure on Netanyahu to take a deal, according to two of the officials. But aides acknowledged she risks disappointing activists who want her to explicitly change course and stop sending weapons to Israel that have been used to kill Palestinian civilians.

No longer running for reelection, Biden will be increasingly focused on foreign affairs in the months ahead. His team is eyeing a few foreign trips before his time in office ends, including the G20 summit in Brazil and a long-awaited stop in Africa.

The Russian invasion into Ukraine will be a key focus at the United Nations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet separately with both Biden and Harris in Washington later in the week and is expected to present them with a plan for victory. In a speech in Kyiv last week, he expressed frustration that he has not gotten approval from the U.S. and the United Kingdom to use long-range weapons, a topic he is certain to raise to the president and vice president.

Biden’s success at building a coalition to help Kyiv is seen by his advisers as his greatest foreign policy achievement. But a Trump victory could quickly unravel that triumph.

Trump has said repeatedly that he would end the conflict in “one day,” and mark a radical shift in U.S. policy. While he has not offered specifics, the White House believes Trump would threaten to stop helping Kyiv and demand that Zelenskyy accept the current battlefield lines — which would give Putin control of a significant swath of Ukraine.

“The fact that Ukraine has not fallen to Russia after all this time constitutes a success, though of course the future remains uncertain,” said Julian Zelizer, a presidential historian at Princeton University. “By all indications, Harris would continue with the same policy, [and] a defeat of Trump would be a blow to the non-interventionist movement of the GOP.”

The Biden administration continues to map out how to spend all $60 billion of aid authorized in the last congressional supplemental and has not ruled out making another request for cash after the election, according to the three officials. Additionally, the president may use his drawdown powers to free up more supplies if needed, and another trip to Europe to deliver a speech about the need to stand with Ukraine is being considered, the officials said.

Biden also made another public push to forge alliances amid an increasingly aggressive China this weekend when he hosted the other Quad leaders — India, Japan, Australia — at his Delaware home and announced policies to strengthen security in the Indo-Pacific.

“President Biden’s foreign policy has been driven by convictions,” said Mark Hannah, senior fellow at the Institute for Global Affairs. “Some of the convictions bucked conventional wisdom within the Beltway, and took real political courage to turn into policy.”

“But some other convictions appear outmoded,” Hannah said, “vestiges of the geopolitical environment in which the president spent most of his political career.”

Erin Banco contributed to this report.