British government split over new-look Brexit deal

LONDON — Keir Starmer heads to Brussels Wednesday on a mission fraught with political danger: the prospect of a new youth mobility scheme.

For some, the revived plan would be a joyous breakthrough after years of testy relations between the European Union and U.K. under a, now despatched, Tory government. For others, signing such a deal would represent nothing more than a betrayal of Brexit.

Should he prove open to overtures from Europe, Starmer is aware he’ll face criticism from opponents in the Tory party as well as from Nigel Farage and his upstart Reform UK, the successor to the original Euroskeptic Brexit Party.

And he’ll also face resistance from allies — the British prime minister will need to brace for opposition from within his own Cabinet, with one of his most senior ministers harboring fears such a scheme would boost migration figures.

In Brussels Wednesday, Starmer will sit down with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for their first big bilateral meeting since his election. The PM plans to discuss his ambitions for the coming month, in the next step of a wider reset with the bloc. 

Before departing for Belgium, Starmer said he was “determined to put the Brexit years behind us and establish a more pragmatic and mature relationship with the European Union,” arguing Britain was “undeniably stronger when it works in lockstep” with its closest allies.

But he has been coy about whether he wants to join a youth mobility scheme to allow younger citizens to live and work either side of the English Channel for a time-limited period. 

In private, some Cabinet ministers eagerly talk up the prospect of younger Europeans being able to study in the U.K.

But the party’s leadership is leery of anything which could bolster the anti-immigration Reform, which has seen support surge in Labour’s traditional heartlands.

The primary internal opposition to a full-blown youth mobility scheme is coming from Starmer’s top interior minister Yvette Cooper.

The home secretary believes such a plan would “not be compatible” with pledges to bring down net migration, according to a person familiar with the thinking at the top of the Home Office. Like others quoted in this story, they were granted anonymity by POLITICO so they could speak candidly.

Some supporters — and EU officials — have suggested the temporary nature of the scheme means participants should not count towards migration figures. They also point out that the U.K. already has similar youth mobility schemes with 12 countries including Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Iceland, and Japan. Just 23,000 used these visas last year, a relatively small component of the overall net migration figure.

But that’s not how the Home Office sees it. “They would still be part of the U.K. labor market,” the person quoted higher said. Cooper is unlikely to accept a fiddling of the books by keeping participants in a EU scheme our of the equation.

Brussels’ quid pro quo

Brussels, along with European capitals such as Berlin, is keen to strike a youth mobility deal as part of talks to ease some of the trade barriers that have dogged Britain since Brexit. 

One EU diplomat said Brussels sees youth mobility as a “quid pro quo” for the U.K.’s “aggressive interests” including the mutual recognition of professional qualifications and a veterinary agreement.

Starmer’s go-to response to any questions about youth mobility is there are “no plans” to join a scheme — but it’s clear he’s not ruling it out, unlike a return to the customs union or the single market.

One Whitehall official told POLITICO however that it seemed that the new PM was nervous about the reaction to signing such a deal, particularly given the British press’s traditional hostility towards the EU. “Youth mobility was a pretty easy thing to identify as something we could consider for what we want to gain,” they said. “It really wasn’t one of the red lines under the last government and it’s unclear why this government is acting like it is.

“They perhaps see it as an opening to free movement or think that all the papers will go ‘Labour’s reversing on Brexit’ … when it impacts a very limited group of individuals.”

The Conservatives that ruled Britain for 14 years may now be rudderless while still working out who’ll be their next leader, but Nigel Farage and his Reform U.K. party are ready to pounce should Starmer be perceived as seeking to roll back Brexit.

The EU is considering modifying an earlier blueprint for such a scheme to make it more politically palatable for Starmer. This could include caps on numbers, shorter stays in their host country, or tighter eligibility criteria.

Pressure from within the party

If Starmer refuses to take an offer, it’ll go down badly with his largely pro-European Labour Party. 

There are the influential regional mayors with their own power bases keen to get youth mobility going. Both London’s Sadiq Khan and Manchester’s Andy Burnham — two of Labour’s biggest figures outside Westminster — are supportive.

Just this week, Burnham told POLITICO “it’s obviously in our interest to do it.”

“I think the public can see the way in which Brexit is closing down opportunities for young people,” he said, arguing a “more sensible arrangement” would bring benefits including easing the restrictions blighting touring musicians. 

There’s also the Labour Movement for Europe, a band of Europhile backbench MPs ready to add to the pressure. 

Stella Creasy, the group’s ringleader, argued the U.K. was facing a “salvage operation because of the damage Brexit is doing” so Starmer must get on with setting out his desires.

“A youth mobility deal, of some sorts, is in the interest of British workers, British business and British young people,” she told POLITICO. “The sooner we start talking about what would work for us, the sooner we could get there.”

Many business and hospitality leaders suffering with trade barriers and staffing shortages are crying out for a deal to be struck too. But they’re keeping a low profile for now, aware of the political challenges the government would have selling the scheme in some quarters.

Starmer’s priorities

Starmer’s EU whisperer, Cabinet Office Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds reccied Brussels for the PM Monday, meeting his counterpart Maroš Šefčovič, vice president of the European Commission.

It was all smiles and handshakes, with no substantive discussions, though officials conceded future negotiations featuring a youth mobility scheme would be more challenging.

After all, a deal on visas could be the price Starmer has to pay for his own priorities for improving the cross-Channel relationship.

Labour wants mutual recognition of professional qualifications with the EU — a key ask of London’s dominant finance sector, which fears missing out on talent under the current post-Brexit arrangements.

Starmer’s election manifesto also pledged to cut bureaucracy for British artists touring the EU, and a veterinary agreement to reduce border bureaucracy for food importers. Brussels is open to negotiation on all of these areas: but youth mobility is considered the price of entry. 

There is some flexibility. Shaken by Starmer’s snub of the Commission’s original proposals, EU member states are in the process of drawing up a fresh negotiating mandate for the EU’s executive which could leave it more room for maneuver. Caps on numbers, tighter entry criteria, and shorter stays have all been privately alluded to as potential areas of compromise to make a deal more palatable.  

“Once the talks are on I think everything can be discussed,” one senior EU diplomat told POLITICO.

The shape of negotiations

Either way, London has a few months to make up its mind.

While Starmer’s meeting with von der Leyen will fire the official starting gun on the political reset between Brussels and London, real negotiations won’t start until next year when the new European Commission has got its feet under the desk. EU officials say the bloc’s new executive will firm up its policies in the last months of 2024.

The form of any negotiations is yet to be decided. Berlin wants the EU to go big and make plans for a shiny new Security and Cooperation Agreement, taking in everything from youth mobility to defense to agri-food standards.

After the preliminary talks with von der Leyen, Starmer will also sit down with European Council President Charles Michel and President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola.

Other EU diplomats and member states including France have expressed a preference for using provisions within the existing Trade and Cooperation Agreement as far as possible — without reopening its core trade functions. Smaller side-deals could be struck on subjects such as youth mobility or SPS “where it makes sense,” one EU diplomat said.

Brussels is also keen that the U.K. finish its main course before it moves onto dessert. The original Brexit withdrawal agreement, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, and the Northern Ireland framework are all still not entirely implemented — a fact EU ambassador to the U.K. Pedro Serrano politely reminded Thomas-Symonds of during a cordial reception at Labour conference in Liverpool last week.

As one EU official put it to POLITICO: “You can’t review something you haven’t done.”

Starmer is deliberately keeping his cards close to his chest for now — but whatever the outcome, it’ll prove politically contentious to one audience or another.

Caroline Hug contributed to this report from London and Esther Webber from Birmingham.