Harris, Trump virtually tied in battleground polls

New polling shows that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remain neck-and-neck in key battleground states that could determine the course of the race, with just weeks until Election Day.

According to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday, Trump and Harris are virtually tied in a survey of likely voters in Michigan, with Harris polling at 48 percent and Trump polling at 47 percent. In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump 49 percent to 47 percent. And in Ohio, Trump is edging slightly ahead of Harris — 50 percent to her 44 percent.

Two Fox News polls of likely voters in Pennsylvania and North Carolina published Friday paint a similar picture, with the candidates tied at 49 percent in the Keystone State and Trump carving out a small lead on Harris in the Tar Heel State of 50 percent to 49 percent.

The Fox poll also shows Democrat Josh Stein strengthening his substantial lead on embattled Republican Mark Robinson in North Carolina’s gubernatorial race by 5 points since last month, with Stein polling at 56 percent compared to Robinson’s 40 percent. Robinson’s campaign became enmeshed in scandal after the Republican’s old posts on a pornography website resurfaced earlier this month.

Saturday’s polling comes just five days after a NYT/Siena survey showed Trump pulling slightly ahead of Harris in the Sun Belt states Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina. Harris in August led Trump in the Arizona and North Carolina battlegrounds, but Trump has since worked to close that gap.

But Trump’s pull doesn’t appear to be carrying down the ballot. According to Saturday’s NYT/Siena poll, three Trump-endorsed Republican challengers are trailing behind Democratic incumbents in key Senate races in Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio.

In Wisconsin, 50 percent of likely voters said they would vote for incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, compared to 43 percent who threw support behind challenger Republican Eric Hovde. In Michigan, 47 percent of likely voters backed Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin over 42 percent for Republican Mike Rogers for the state’s open Senate seat. And in Ohio, 47 percent of voters said they planned to vote for incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, compared to 43 percent who said they’d vote for challenger Republican Bernie Moreno.

Democrats are facing an uphill battle to maintain their majority in the Senate, with Brown’s race in Ohio and Sen. Jon Tester’s race in Montana widely viewed as keys to the party’s success on the Senate map. Both states decisively voted for Trump in 2020, with Ohio now polling at 50 percent for Trump, compared to Harris’ 44 percent.

The new polls come at the end of a summer punctuated by a series of dramatic political events, from President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race to multiple apparent assassination attempts on Trump’s life. Trump and Harris also faced off in a tense debate earlier this month that was widely considered a strong performance by the Democratic nominee. Vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance are set to face off on Oct. 1.

The NYT/Siena College poll was conducted via phone interview among 688 likely voters in Michigan, 687 likely voters in Ohio and 680 likely voters in Wisconsin between Sept. 21 and 26. The poll’s margin of error among likely voters is roughly +/- 4 percentage points for each poll, and roughly +/- 2.5 percentage points when the three statewide polls are combined.

Fox News’ Pennsylvania poll was conducted between Sept. 20-24 via call or online survey among 775 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.5 percentage points. Fox’s North Carolina poll was conducted in the same period and with the same margin of error among 787 likely voters.