Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will be next leader of Britain’s Tories

LONDON — Never say politics is predictable.

Right-wingers Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick will do battle for the Conservative Party leadership after centrist contender James Cleverly fell at the final hurdle despite a late surge.

Tory MPs — who had to whittle down the list of contenders to just two before a vote of the wider party membership in the coming weeks — decided Badenoch and Jenrick should be the final two candidates. Badenoch bagged 42 votes, and Jenrick netted 41.

Cleverly, the shadow home secretary who urged the Tories to get united and be optimistic, enjoyed a boost in support after a strong Conservative conference. But he was knocked out in a shock move Wednesday after finishing in third place among MPs.

He received 37 votes. Cleverly had topped the ballot only yesterday, making an appearance in the final two seem inevitable.

Both candidates now face the task of convincing members they can lead the Conservatives back into government after the party’s worst election defeat in history. The party currently holds just 121 seats in the House of Commons.

Ballot papers will be posted to Tory members on Oct. 15, and voting closes on Halloween (Oct. 31). The new leader is announced on Nov. 2, just three days before the U.S. election.

POLITICO has a quick primer on the final two competing for one of the toughest gigs in British politics.

Kemi Badenoch

She’s a hit with the wider Conservative party membership and came top of the ballot among MPs for the first time Wednesday afternoon, despite stumbles along the way.

“Some people say I like a fight. I can’t imagine where they got that idea,” Badenoch quipped at party conference.

The shadow housing secretary — who has done a host of Cabinet jobs — has framed her campaign around renewal and telling hard truths. She’s an avid proponent of free markets, free speech and wading into what’s sometimes characterized as the “culture wars,” blasting “woke” culture and arguing the left has captured the conversation in Britain for decades.

Her abrasive style looked like it had come back to bite Badenoch in Birmingham after she told Times Radio maternity pay had “gone too far.” Her opponents leapt on the comments, which she insisted had been taken out of context. But she’s bagged the endorsement of plenty of Tory MPs, and goes into the membership round in a strong position.

Robert Jenrick

Once dubbed “Robert Generic” for seeming to represent a flavorless brand of centrist Toryism, Jenrick has tacked to the right on immigration.

He voted to stay in the EU in the 2016 Brexit referendum. But Jenrick came to prominence when he co-authored (with Rishi Sunak, no less) a Times op-ed endorsing Brexiteer Boris Johnson for leader.

Dropped from Johnson’s Cabinet team in 2021, not long after becoming embroiled in a controversy over a planning decision, Jenrick made a government comeback as immigration minister under Rishi Sunak. But he quit last year in protest at the lack of action on deportations.

The signs he was mulling a leadership bid were all there — ably assisted by Ozempic, he shed the pounds and got a snazzy new haircut. And he wooed influential right-wing MPs. Policy wise, Jenrick has pledged to cap immigration and says he wants to do more on house building. And he’s racking up big donations.

Jenrick has made leaving the European Convention on Human Rights on day one the cornerstone of his campaign. He had a rough party conference in Birmingham, however, amid a row over claims the ECHR compels Britain’s elite military special forces to start “killing rather than capturing terrorists,” because of the threat of legal wrangling. Still, he’s through to the final two — and will be hoping all that ECHR bashing stands him in good stead with the rank-and-file.