Killing of Hamas leader renews US hopes for cease-fire in Gaza

The White House is hopeful that the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar will open the door for an end to Israel’s war against the Palestinian militant group in the Gaza Strip, as a cease-fire and hostage release deal has eluded U.S. and regional negotiators for over a year and the war remains a political liability for the Biden administration.

But it’s unclear whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli government will heed U.S. calls to de-escalate the conflict and return to cease-fire talks, which have stalled for over a month.

Israel confirmed on Thursday that a strike in the southern Gazan city of Rafah killed Sinwar, the leader of Hamas who helped plan and execute the Oct. 7 terror attacks last year that saw over 1,200 Israelis killed and another 250 taken hostage by Hamas militants. Sinwar, who previously led Hamas in the Gaza Strip, assumed total leadership of the Iranian proxy group in August after Israel assassinated his predecessor Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

News broke about Sinwar’s death not long after President Joe Biden and much of his national security team boarded Air Force One and lifted off from Joint Base Andrews, bound for Germany. For many of Biden’s aides, the revelation was the first glimmer of hope in weeks that a cease-fire deal could be back on the table, according to two senior administration officials not authorized to speak publicly about sensitive topics.

It was too soon to gauge the impact of Sinwar’s death, the officials cautioned. But some in the West Wing believed that as long as Sinwar remained alive, the hardliners in Netanyahu’s government could never be convinced to stop its bombardment of Gaza, the officials said.

But Sinwar’s death could now provide momentum for those in Israel who are looking to de-escalate, the officials believed. And the killing — combined with massive Israeli success against Hezbollah in Lebanon — could be persuasive in convincing Netanyahu to begin winding down wider regional conflicts.

Biden has made achieving a cease-fire deal — while freeing the remaining hostages — the top foreign policy priority of his dwindling term, but his closest aides had largely abandoned the idea that it could happen while he was still in office, the officials said. Sinwar’s death breathed some new life, even faintly, into that hope.

And, the officials acknowledged, any sort of reduction in violence would likely help Vice President Kamala Harris in the home stretch of the campaign. But they acknowledged the unpredictability of Israel’s domestic politics — as well Netanyahu’s general refusal to keep his word to Biden — would continue to present real challenges to finalizing any sort of deal.

Sinwar was seen as a major obstacle to cease-fire talks between the militant group and Israel, per national security adviser Jake Sullivan. Briefing reporters aboard Air Force One today, Sullivan said that “Sinwar was more interested in causing mayhem and chaos and death than actually trying to achieve a cease-fire and hostage deal, and we repeatedly saw moments where it was him in particular who stood in the way of making progress towards the cease-fire and hostage deal.”

Those private hopes have been bolstered by public statements from Biden and Harris on Thursday, who both urged Israel to move towards ending its military operations in the Gaza Strip following the death of the Hamas leader, arguing that a key obstacle to a cease-fire and hostage release deal has now been eliminated.

In a statement, Biden celebrated the news of Sinwar’s death and added that “there is now the opportunity for a “day after” in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike.” He described Sinwar as “an insurmountable obstacle to achieving all of those goals” and that “that obstacle no longer exists.”

Meanwhile, at a campaign event in Wisconsin, Harris said that Hamas “is decimated and its leadership is eliminated. This moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza.”

Even critics of the administration’s handling of the war in the Gaza Strip — both Republicans who have argued that the U.S. has not done enough to support Israel and Democrats who have pushed the Biden administration to add conditions to its unwavering support for Israel — shared a similar optimism in reaction to the news.

House Intelligence Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio), who has previously called on the Biden administration to step up its support of Israel, expressed faith that Sinwar’s death might precipitate an end to hostilities in the region.

“It is my hope that Sinwar’s elimination will result in further progress toward the release of all hostages still held in Gaza, as well as to a ceasefire for Palestinians who have suffered under Hamas’ grip for far too long,” Turner said in a statement.

“It is now imperative that there be an immediate ceasefire, return of hostages and massive surge of humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians in Gaza,” wrote Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) in a post on the social media network X, adding “good riddance” in reference to Sinwar’s demise. Van Hollen is among the Democrats who have called for the administration to increase pressure on the Israeli government over alleged human rights abuses during its war in Gaza.

But it’s unclear whether Israel will relent in its war effort, which has killed thousands of Palestinian civilians and reduced many of the territory’s urban areas into rubble. It has also created a major humanitarian crisis that international aid groups warn could cause further deaths and suffering. Those factors have contributed to Biden and Harris’ stagnant poll numbers and frustrations among Arab American voters who criticize the administration’s unconditional support for Israel amid the war.

Cease-fire talks also broke down in recent weeks as the war continued with no end in sight. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said Wednesday that Israel and Hamas have not engaged in cease-fire talks in nearly a month. Israel has remained focused on its military operations against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and a promised retaliation against Iran for an Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack.

Speaking in Israel, Netanyahu said that “today evil has suffered a heavy blow, but the task before us is not yet complete,” indicating that Israel will continue its military operations in the war-torn enclave and its efforts to further weaken the capabilities of the Iran-backed proxy. He also vowed to continue fighting to release hostages in Hamas custody.