New EU defense commissioner is all-in on supporting Ukraine

There’s no doubt about where Andrius Kubilius stands on Ukraine; he’s a fierce backer and that matters as he was appointed the European Union’s first defense commissioner on Tuesday.

“For those who are arguing that Ukraine should agree with the peace conditions of [Russian leader Vladimir] Putin, I would suggest to look into the possibility to offer to Putin territory of their own country,” he said in the European Parliament in July, adding: “Peace can be achieved only if Ukraine is winning and its territorial sovereignty is defended, and that can be done only with our much longer support.”

While his new title sounds grand, the EU only plays a peripheral role in defense, an area where national capitals jealously guard their sovereignty. Instead of commanding armies, Kubilius will be in charge of better organizing the EU’s fragmented defense industry and helping member countries rearm while continuing to ship crucial weapons to Ukraine.

“He will work on developing the European defense union and boosting our investment in capacity,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters after announcing the makeup of the new Commission.

Von der Leyen proposed creating the new job earlier this year in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a break with the EU’s tradition of seeing itself as a project dedicated to peace. Even the bloc’s main financing vehicle for partially reimbursing countries for arms donated to Ukraine is called the European Peace Facility.

But any new commission post involves wresting files from existing (and often powerful) incumbents. That’s where it’s clear Kubilius begins on the back foot.

He will have to report to Finland’s Henna Virkkunen, who is in charge of the technology portfolio, von der Leyen said.

Von der Leyen also underlined that the new job is not a power grab.

“I’m very clear about the fact that there are competences of the member states, like the composition of the troops, the missions, the deployment,” she said, adding that Kubilius “is responsible for the single market and the industry … and the strengthening of the defense industrial base.”

In her mission statement to the new defense commissioner, Von der Leyen told Kubilius to draft a paper on the future of European defense within 100 days that will ready capitals for the “most extreme military contingencies.”

There is also an order to work up concepts for a European air defense shield and cyber defense programs.

Kubilius was also told to build out the bloc’s military mobility corridors and work on aggregating demand for military gear among national militaries. 

When von der Leyen first suggested the new job, some big countries like Poland and France were interested, but they dropped away when it became clear that the post will not be a core job.

A lot of what Kubilius will do comes down to expectations management.

Von der Leyen estimated  in June that EU defense needs €500 billion over the next decade, but it’s unclear where the money will come from. Countries like Germany and the Netherlands are strongly opposed to issuing common debt, as happened after the Covid pandemic. Money could also come from the EU’s multi-year budget in what would spark a political battle.

As for the space component of his portfolio, it will include managing the EU’s standing Galileo and Copernicus satellite programs along with pushing ahead with the bloc’s third project — a multi-billion secure internet satellite constellation dubbed IRIS² which should be up and running during the next mandate.

A Baltic cabal

While Kubilius will have to battle for influence in the Commission, he will be part of a strongly anti-Kremlin cabal.

Kaja Kallas, the former Estonian prime minister, has been appointed the EU’s top diplomat, so she is the bloc’s public face on responding to Russia and also controls the European Peace Facility and EU military operations.  

Finland’s Virkkunen also comes from one of the bloc’s most Russia-skeptic countries.

Kubilius’ first hurdle will be hearings in the European Parliament.

“The new commissioner will have to invest a lot of energy to convince the big member states that they are better off working together as a European Union,” Green MEP Hannah Neumann said. And he “will have to work closely with Parliament to support that push.” 

The 67-year-old has a lot of political experience. He was twice Lithuania’s prime minister, steering the country through the global economic crisis — something that has given him “cult” status in his home country, Petras Auštrevičius, a Lithuanian MEP from Renew, said.

Kubilius is with the conservative European People’s Party, the same grouping that houses von der Leyen.

While big countries may have turned up their noses at the job, coming from a small nation does have benefits. Kubilius can be more authoritative when he calls for EU money compared to someone from a big country, who would be accused of trying to boost their national industrial groups. 

Joshua Posaner contributed reporting.