Scott Rasmussen’s 2024 Election Breakdown: Polling Surprises and Swing State Showdowns

Pollster Scott Rasmussen shares his insights on the latest polling data and discusses the political landscape as the presidential race reaches the critical month of September. Watch or listen to our full interview on the latest episode of “The Daily Signal Podcast.”

With only small margins separating Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in crucial swing states, the presidential race remains highly competitive, with no clear leader emerging yet, Rasmussen tells The Daily Signal.

“Right now, the race in many ways is like it was in the Trump-Biden numbers, with the exception that people know very little about Vice President Harris,” he says. “They don’t know her policies. They don’t have an opinion of her.”

Several swing states—Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia—are up for grabs, Rasmussen predicts, while the big prize of Pennsylvania appears likely to determine the outcome of the election.

Rasmussen is president of RMG Research and host of “The Scott Rasmussen Show” on Merit Street Media (airing Sundays at 10 a.m. ET). His polling is available at Napolitan News Service.

In our interview, Rasmussen also examines Harris’ rise as the Democrat nominee after President Joe Biden’s withdrawal, noting that her limited number of policy proposals, such as a tax on unrealized capital gains and price controls, are generally unpopular.

“If you ask voters, who do you trust on certain issues? Donald Trump is generally trusted more than Kamala Harris on the top issues dealing with the economy and immigration,” Rasmussen explains. “If you were to take the job-approval numbers of President Biden and recognize that Harris is defending that administration, you would also say Trump should have a big advantage here. But there are some people who, even though they might prefer his policies, just can’t bring themselves to vote for the former president.”

Rasmussen also discusses broader political themes, such as how voters perceive “progressive Democrats” versus “MAGA Republicans.” While neither term is particularly popular, “progressive Democrats” fares better among voters—unless their opposition to border security or parental involvement in education are emphasized.

The 2024 election, Rasmussen predicts, could come down to who focuses on the policy issues that most affect Americans’ lives.

“President Trump could learn a lesson from candidate Trump in 2016,” Rasmussen says. “In 2016, and it shocked a lot of people after the election was done, the analysis showed that Donald Trump talked about issues a lot. … Hillary Clinton talked about Donald Trump. And since she didn’t address issues and since she embodied the political establishment, that was her downfall.”

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