Shutdown Averted, But Will It Come Back to Haunt Mike Johnson?

The House and Senate voted in favor of a measure to fund the government until December on Wednesday evening, averting a government shutdown that was set to begin Oct. 1. While Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La, was ultimately able to muster the votes to avoid a government shutdown, Wednesday night’s vote on the measure, known as a continuing resolution, and a future government funding fight come December carry profound implications for the future of Johnson and the House.

The continuing resolution, considered under suspension of House rules and therefore requiring two thirds of the chamber to pass, got through the House with the support of 341 representatives. Eighty-two House members, all Republicans, voted in opposition.

It was not how Johnson envisioned funding the government. Initially, Johnson wanted to pass a continuing resolution with the SAVE Act attached, which would have ensured illegal immigrants could not vote in federal elections. This plan was initially delayed and then ultimately failed because a small number of Republicans took issue with the funding mechanism and voted against it, as did nearly all Democrats in the minority. With days left to fund the government, House Republican leaders caved to Senate demands for a “clean” continuing resolution.

When the dust settled, 209 Democrats and 132 Republicans voted in favor of the “clean” continuing resolution. Sometimes, politics is simple: the party that votes more in favor of a piece of legislation that passes has scored a win. Throughout this Congress, the speaker has had to rely on Democratic votes to get legislation, whether government funding measures, supplemental appropriations for military aid, or other pieces of legislation, through the House, which has predictably undermined his credibility with more conservative members and weakened his negotiating position with other congressional leaders, namely his Senate counterpart Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

Yet, Johnson staved off the worst outcome for his political prospects absent a government shutdown. While more Democrats than Republicans did vote in favor of the continuing resolution, Johnson managed to earn the support of a majority of the Republican conference. Had he failed to garner the support of a majority of Republicans, Johnson might not have found himself the head of the House GOP conference come Jan. 2025.

Nov. 5 remains the most important litmus test for Johnson’s leadership. If Republicans fail to retain the House, not only will Johnson not be speaker—it’s possible he’s out of House leadership entirely.

Nevertheless, Johnson will face one more test after the Nov. 5 election when the continuing resolution passed Wednesday night expires in Dec. The speaker has resolved to avoid an omnibus entirely. “There won’t be a Christmas omnibus,” Johnson told reporters in a press conference Tuesday.

“We have broken the Christmas omni, and I have no intention of going back to that terrible tradition,” the speaker claimed, citing the two “minibuses” passed earlier this year. Whether omni- or mini-, that appropriations process, which is supposed to be accomplished through 12 separate spending bills, does not please the GOP conference.

Johnson was quick to clarify: “We don’t want any buses. We’re not going to do any buses, OK?”

What you want and what you get are two entirely different things—especially in Washington. For Johnson to get what he wants for Christmas, he will have to fight for it.

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