Trump says Ukraine doesn’t hold any cards — he’s the one snatching them

Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe. 

KYIV — Since Russia launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the country and its people have adapted to so much, overcoming challenges that would have broken many another countries.

Whether miraculously patching up wrecked energy systems or developing innovative drones, time and again, their resilience and inventiveness have seen them through. But after three exhausting years, new challenges are now being heaped on them by their most important ally — a consequence of U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

“You don’t have the cards,” Trump taunted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Arguably, though, Trump is the one snatching away any cards Ukraine did possess, single-handedly pushing the country into its most perilous time since the all-out invasion began in February 2022.

Hit with the suspension of U.S. military aid — including hardware already in the pipeline that the country was eagerly awaiting — Ukraine is now being deprived of resupplies of some of its most important and effective weapons, like the Patriot missiles that have proven crucial for protecting cities.

Moreover, Washington has withdrawn its vital intelligence-sharing. And on top of that, the country has seen its wartime president goaded and lectured in the Oval Office, before being unceremoniously kicked out of the White House.

According to Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg, Ukrainians “brought this on themselves” by not sufficiently cooperating with the U.S. president in peace talks — in other words, they haven’t danced a jig about the U.S.-Russia negotiations they’ve been kept out of. And while Trump appears ready to trust the word of Russia’s Vladimir Putin, his officials have dubbed Zelenskyy as argumentative and an obstacle to peace.

Trying to adapt to all these recent events and the disorienting tremors they’re setting off, Ukrainians are, as ever, trying to maintain a brave face and display confidence.

Kyiv’s soldiers valiantly say they can adapt to the loss of U.S. intelligence. And Ukrainian officials are exploring alternatives with foreign partners. “There’s nothing unique about the United States’ intelligence capabilities. It’s possible to replace them,” according to Mykhailo Samus, a military expert and director of the New Geopolitics Research Network.

But much of this confidence is bravado. In terms of intelligence, it’s doubtful anyone can fully replace what the U.S. has withdrawn.

According to Mykola Bielieskov, one of Ukraine’s most astute military analysts, who spoke to POLITICO, Europe can’t fill many of the intelligence gaps, especially when it comes to the real-time information needed for anti-ballistic missile defense and over-the-horizon real-time information on what’s happening on the other side of the border, such as troop build-ups and logistics and the transfer of command-and-control hubs.

And the consequences of this will be felt both by Ukraine’s soldiers on the frontlines and civilians, he said.

Without U.S. forewarning, Ukraine will struggle to intercept Russian ballistic missiles targeting the country’s already hard-hit critical infrastructure, especially its energy system. “With anti-ballistic missile defense, every second is important,” Bielieskov noted. Until the suspension, Ukraine was receiving information on any Russian missiles being prepared for launch, and they were alerted the moment missiles were fired from tell-tale heat signatures. One needs military-grade satellite intelligence to do that — and the U.S. has a much more extensive array of satellites, he said.

“It might have real negative consequences for the daily life of civilians,” Bielieskov added, speaking on March 7, just hours before Russia unleashed salvos of ballistic missiles at Ukrainian military and civilian targets, stretching all the way from the country’s east to its west. And of the 67 missiles and 194 drones Russia launched that night, Ukraine’s air defenses managed to intercept 34 missiles and a hundred drones — worryingly, that’s only a 50 percent interception rate compared to the pre-intelligence shutdown average of more than 80 percent.

Likewise, proof of its frontline impact also became clear over the weekend, with a Russian breakthrough in Kursk, where after a surprise cross-border incursion launched last summer, Ukraine had carved out a salient inside Russia. Using mostly North Korean troops, Russia had been chipping away at this salient for weeks. And, according to Ukrainian military sources who spoke with POLITICO, the breakthrough was partly a result of the U.S. intelligence shut-off, which gave Russia an edge it’s been quick to exploit.

 Now, around 10,000 elite Ukrainian troops are at risk of being encircled.

The cross-border Kursk operation had been, in part, conceived as a morale-booster to lift flagging Ukrainian spirits — and it did so. It also showed allies (and Russia) that Ukraine’s military still has some waspish offensive capabilities. But a defeat in Kursk — and there are unconfirmed reports of a high death toll, with possibly hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers dead — would compound plummeting morale.

But it isn’t only a severe setback in Kursk worrying Ukrainian lawmaker Maryana Bezuhla, who, until recently, served on the Ukrainian parliament’s defense and intelligence committee. Alarmed by the combination of the intelligence cut-off and the suspension of military aid, she fears Russia will now be tempted to mount devastating ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian city centers.

“I just want to emphasize it’s insane because this suspension could impact our cities, our civilians. If they decided to, the Russians could use this opportunity, for example, to launch hundreds of missiles and drones and combat planes, and destroy some city center,” she told POLITICO.

She fears recruitment and mobilization — already a huge challenge — will be severely hampered thanks so the withdrawal of U.S. support, resulting in more draft-dodging and insufficient manpower on the frontlines. “Of course, it will be more difficult. The 180-degree turn by Trump isn’t going to be good for recruiting and mobilization,” she said.

Nonetheless, she dismisses all talk of a peace settlement. “What Trump doesn’t get is that this isn’t just about Ukraine. Even if we capitulated, that won’t finish the conflict because it’s not only about us. It’s part of a bigger global conflict.”

Kellogg says Trump acted the way he did — in his words, by hitting the mule across the nose with a two-by-four — in order to get Ukraine’s attention. He certainly has it now.