Trump threats prompt EU to plan for fresh Ukraine refugee wave

BRUSSELS ― The threat of a prolonged war in Ukraine without military backing from the United States is leading European Union politicians to contemplate the emergence of a fresh wave of huge numbers of refugees.

“If Putin escalates this war even further and the American support should disappear, and if this should lead to a larger refugee movement … we need a binding distribution of the Ukraine refugees throughout the EU, according to a fair mechanism,” German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser told reporters Wednesday.

In December last year, more than 4.3 million people were under temporary protection in European countries after fleeing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Eurostat data.

So far, Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic have received the most Ukrainian refugees, and in the event of a new, larger refugee wave, “that will have to change,” Faeser said.

Faeser added that she doesn’t currently expect another large refugee surge and that it’s “just a scenario” ministers have to discuss. Germany will stand by Ukraine “as long as Putin’s terrible attack against Ukraine continues,” she said.

Europe’s political leaders rushed to X, formerly Twitter, to throw their support behind Ukraine after U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance held a shouting match with the Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in the Oval Office.

But the topic of Ukrainian refugees taps into European reservations on taking in migrants, with deportations high on the agenda of an EU meeting in Brussels on Wednesday.

Austria’s Interior Minister Gerhard Karner, who said he’d use his Brussels visit to formally inform the European Commission of the brand new Austrian government‘s intention to halt family reunification, treated the prospect of more Ukrainian refugees in much the same vein.

Per capita, Austria has “clearly taken in more [refugees] than many other countries,” Karner told reporters. The country “has made its contribution” and now wants to focus on the integration of the people who are already there, he said, “That’s also the reason why we’re now stopping family reunification.” 

In absolute terms, Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic were hosting the highest number of refugees, with about 1 million people under temporary protection in both Germany and Poland. But when compared with local populations, the Baltics, Slovakia and Ireland were also key destinations.

The temporary protection status, an EU provision that was first triggered for Ukraine’s refugees, means they have the right to work, live and study in their host country, although NGOs have warned that the temporary nature of the status has nonetheless undermined refugees’ integration.

The local language, proximity to Ukraine, a local support network and the available information about local benefit measures all influence refugees’ choice to move to a specific country.