Why is Trump campaigning in blue New York?

NEW YORK — Donald Trump complained during his Manhattan hush money trial that being stuck in New York prevented him from campaigning in swing states. But on Wednesday, he’s opting to forgo those battlegrounds to rally instead in the blue state he has virtually no chance of winning.

The GOP nominee for president is headed to Long Island, a Republican stronghold that has helped make the state more competitive for his party. And even if the suburbs east of New York City don’t pave the path to the White House, they are crucial to determining who controls the House next year.

Trump will rally supporters in the district held by Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, one of five freshman Republicans in New York facing tough reelection fights.

“While New York perhaps is not a battleground state, Long Island is a battleground island,” D’Esposito said in an interview. “It does benefit him, because as president, he’s going to need a majority in the House, and those seats that we’re defending on Long Island and around New York are key to that majority.”

Trump can expect a warm welcome from Nassau County Republicans who say his visit has been six months in the making. The local GOP takes credit for a red wave that has swept Republicans into local, state and federal office on the island and for helping the state become a little more purple.

Before he dropped out of the race for president, Joe Biden’s lead in historically blue New York had narrowed to just 8 percentage points over Trump, according to a Siena College poll. More recently, with Kamala Harris now topping the ticket, the Democratic Party has opened its lead to 14 points.

“This is not just a rally in a location that is extremely important to him personally, where he has roots going back his whole life, but he’s clearly in a far better position, electorally, in New York than he was in 2020,” former Rep. Lee Zeldin said in an interview.

Trump leads in Long Island congressional districts, private polling shows.

D’Esposito’s Democratic rival, Laura Gillen, appears to understand Trump’s popularity and has been reticent about criticizing him, limiting her barbs to the issues.

Gillen, who declined to be interviewed by POLITICO, posted on X ahead of Trump’s visit that violence has no place in politics — a reference to two attempts on the former president’s life — and expressed confidence in Nassau County police’s ability to keep residents safe.

Democratic State Sen. Kevin Thomas, who represents the area, said D’Esposito’s seat is “easiest to flip.”

“Laura Gillen is a great candidate for that seat,” he said in an interview. “We just have to do the work on the ground. We’ve got to knock on doors and be out there in the community.”

The rally on Long Island was originally scheduled to coincide with Trump’s criminal sentencing date in Manhattan, and the campaign kept it in place even after the sentencing was postponed, according to a person familiar with the planning who was granted anonymity to speak freely.

Trump’s campaign coordinated the use of the Nassau Coliseum in Uniondale with Las Vegas Sands, which plans to turn the venue into a casino and is owned by Trump megadonor Miriam Adelson, another person familiar with the planning said.

Democratic leaders welcomed Trump’s visit to a blue state — as a political misstep for him.

“I’d love to have him here, because anytime he’s in Nassau County, he’s not in Pennsylvania, he’s not in Wisconsin and Michigan, he’s not in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina,” New York State and Nassau County Democratic chair Jay Jacobs said in an interview. “So he can stay here. I think it’s a real good use of his time.”

But Republican surrogates said Trump doesn’t need to be in a swing state to make an impact.

“He’s got a message for all of his suburbs about American values, and Nassau County’s the first suburb in America,” Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman said in an interview. “And it’s an apropos place to talk about the suburbs of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Detroit, Phoenix and Atlanta, just to name a few.”

On Tuesday, a day before the rally, Trump sought to catch the eye of Long Islanders and other residents of highly taxed states by posting on social media about what is colloquially known as SALT.

The former president wrote on Truth Social that he would “get SALT back,” indicating he would lift the $10,000 limit on deductions for state and local taxes that he signed into law as part of his 2017 tax package.

When D’Esposito posted that Trump is now the only presidential candidate who has pledged to ax the cap, Gillen responded that Trump is the one who gutted the deduction in the first place.

The Democratic National Committee, meanwhile, is counter-programming the rally with a digital ad campaign and mobile billboard attacking Trump, JD Vance and their GOP allies for threatening in vitro fertilization access.