Biden raises pressure on Israel as war undercuts Harris

The Biden administration is taking fresh steps to defuse the spiraling Middle East crisis at a moment when any actions related to Israel could affect the outcome of a U.S. presidential election three weeks away.

In recent days, President Joe Biden’s team has warned Israel that it must resume humanitarian aid to Gaza or face a cutoff in weapons shipments; wrested an apparent commitment from Israel not to strike Iranian nuclear and oil facilities; marked the anniversary of the killing of a Palestinian American boy; and publicized the steps it is taking to fight Islamophobia in the United States.

Such moves reflect the urgency the administration feels to keep a fight that has already spread well beyond Gaza from becoming an all-out regional war that entangles the U.S. and stokes more anti-American anger among Muslims.

But the steps also could benefit Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race against Donald Trump if it appears Biden is being tougher on Israel.

That’s especially the case in swing states such as Michigan, where a sizable number of Arab and Muslim Americans live. Many of those voters — but also other younger, more progressive voters in Michigan and beyond — are unwilling to cast ballots for Harris because she has not broken with Biden’s strong commitment to Israel amid the conflict in the Middle East.

At the same time, being too tough on Israel risks upsetting many pro-Israel voters in the Jewish community and beyond, whom Trump has been courting.

In Michigan, around 1 percent of the state’s population of 10 million is Jewish and around 3 percent have Middle Eastern or North African ancestry — both potentially crucial voting blocs in a state where Harris and Trump are neck and neck.

Particularly with that second group, Biden has been dogged by accusations that he is not exerting as much influence as he could over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or how Israel conducts itself in war.

“They’re working to fight this narrative that Bibi is in the driver’s seat escalating and Biden is just sitting in the passenger seat watching this escalate, while offering lukewarm criticisms on the side,” said one former administration official who regularly speaks to current officials on Middle East policy. “It’s a tough narrative to fight.” Like others, the former official was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.

Biden administration spokespersons denied that the moves that came to light this week had anything to do with the election. The race was “not a factor at all,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said Tuesday.

“The president has been very consistent in expressing our concerns to the Israelis about humanitarian assistance getting into Gaza, and certainly he’s mindful of our efforts to communicate those concerns to the Israelis,” White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said.

A spokesperson for the Harris campaign declined to comment, as did a spokesperson for the Israeli Embassy in Washington.

Biden and his aides have at times sent mixed signals on America’s aims. For example, some of his top aides quietly supported Israel intensifying its fight against Hezbollah militants in Lebanon even as other parts of the administration were working with allies to draw up a 21-day cease-fire plan to stop that fight. More recently, the administration has been downplaying the need for an immediate Lebanon cease-fire.

Some of the confusing messaging is due to U.S. calculations that offering Israel some support in its battle gives the Biden team more leverage over its actions, along with the U.S. desire to weaken Iran.

But every battle the U.S. supports also risks civilian lives. And each image of Palestinian, Lebanese or other innocents caught in the crossfire raises questions about America’s role.

“Biden is a lame duck president, and there’s only so much he can do. On the other hand, there are things he could still be doing, like not sending offensive weapons,” said one Democratic House member who supports the president but opposes Israel’s wartime policy. “I think that would be an important signal. And we’ve been unwilling to do that.”

Harris is aware of this dynamic, and she has at times been more vocal than Biden about the need to protect civilians in places such as the Gaza Strip.

But she also has been careful not to seem at odds with Biden. Harris has not called for a stop to U.S. weapons shipments to Israel, for instance. Biden has largely permitted such weapons transfers to continue, saying Israel has the right to protect itself against enemies such as Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as Iran’s Islamist regime.

Israel arguably has the most sway over what ultimately happens on the ground, and officials there say they will do what’s in their national interest.

Netanyahu has been an avid Trump supporter who likely would not mind seeing Harris defeated this November. But the latest Biden administration actions suggest the U.S. hopes it is having some success getting Netanyahu to recalibrate his thinking.

The U.S. has been worried, for instance, that Israel plans to soon strike Iranian nuclear or oil facilities in retaliation against Tehran — escalating the face-off between the governments and spiking global energy prices. Reports emerged Monday that Netanyahu had told U.S. officials his country would not target such facilities, a potential sign he was listening to U.S. advice.

A senior U.S. official confirmed the reports and said Israel had suggested that it would instead go after military targets and other sensitive Iranian equipment and infrastructure. But the White House is also aware that Netanyahu’s track record of fulfilling his assurances during the war has been mixed.

The Biden administration also announced over the weekend that it was sending Israel the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system along with 100 U.S. troops to operate it, in another attempt to persuade Iran to walk away from future retaliatory strikes.

Another report this week, carried by outlets including CNN, was about how Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had written to senior Israeli officials warning them that Israel had to improve the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza or risk violating U.S. laws that could force American officials to cut off military aid.

The letter, which administration officials confirmed Tuesday, is relatively tough in tone and lays out details of the misery on the ground. It gives Israel 30 days to show it is taking steps to ease the conditions. That falls after the presidential election.

But the U.S. has had numerous chances over the past year to ascertain whether Israeli actions on the battlefield violate U.S. and international laws, and American officials have sidestepped the question, infuriating human rights activists.

“The Muslim-American community as a whole will likely see this effort as disingenuous,” said Yasmine Taeb, a prominent progressive activist in touch with the White House. “If you actually cared about Muslim lives, Palestinian lives, you would stop sending the arms that are used to kill them every single day.”

Still, the letter is something Biden aides can point to when questioned about why the U.S. isn’t doing more to help Palestinian civilians who face everything from constant displacement to severe struggles finding food.

Miller, addressing reporters during his regular news briefing, insisted that past Biden administration interventions had led Israel to allow in more humanitarian aid to Gaza and that such letters can have an effect.

The administration has also been making moves to stress that it cares about Arab and Muslim lives both in the Middle East and in the United States.

Biden released a statement Monday marking the killing of a 6-year-old Palestinian American boy in Illinois a year earlier, saying “there is no place for hate in America, including hatred of Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims.”

The White House also released a fact sheet laying out steps it has taken to combat anti-Arab and Islamophobic hate over the past year. In both statements, Harris was mentioned as well, and the administration made sure to circulate the fact sheet and statement to progressive activists.

It’s unclear whether these types of missives will resonate with voters, but at least some Muslim American communities are showing themselves more willing to embrace Harris in recent weeks.

This month, Harris has been endorsed by the American Muslims in National Security group and a group of 25 prominent Islamic leaders who wrote that voting for Harris “far outweighs the harms of the other options.”

Jonathan Lemire contributed to this report.