US military aid pause leaves Ukraine vulnerable to Russian air attack

KYIV — The U.S. halt in sending military aid to Ukraine could leave the country vulnerable to aerial attacks just as Russia is gearing up for a massive increase in drone and missile strikes.

Ukraine has a reported six MIM-104 Patriot missile batteries — used to protect some of the country’s highest priority targets. The Patriot, with a range of about 160 kilometers, is one of the few systems Ukraine operates that can hit distant targets and knock down Russian ballistic missiles like the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile.

The pause in deliveries of U.S. weapons coincides with signs that Russia will double down on longstanding efforts to exhaust Ukraine’s remaining supplies of Patriot air-defense missiles. And with no chance of any immediate replenishment from Washington, that leaves Ukraine’s infrastructure and key cities highly exposed.  

If the U.S. ends the delivery of Patriot missiles, Ukraine could potentially be supplied by other countries that have acquired the U.S. system.

“Russian plans include increasing the number of launch sites from which they will launch drones across our territory. According to Russian military calculations, if their plans for the first half of the year are fulfilled, they can launch approximately 500 drones simultaneously,” General Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR), told RBC-Ukraine on Monday.

“The Russians understand our capabilities and where our air defense systems are located, and they attempt to bypass them. Additionally, they select priority targets whose destruction will have the greatest effect,” he added. 

Ukraine also operates at least two Franco-Italian Eurosam SAMP/T batteries, with characteristics similar to the Patriot.

But Ukraine’s other air defense systems like Norwegian-American NASAMS — it operates about a dozen — have a shorter range of about 40 km and aren’t suited to be used against ballistic missiles.

Britain has signed a deal with Kyiv under which Ukraine will receive 5,000 Lightweight Multirole Missiles (LMM) and the technology for their production. But it isn’t clear when those missiles will arrive in large quantities. They have a range of about 8 km and are not a substitute for Patriots.

Ukrainian military officials have been clear that any U.S. pause risks Ukraine facing significant shortfalls in critical ammunition and defense systems at a pivotal moment in the war. 

Russian forces have reduced their ballistic missile strikes in recent weeks and fired only 99 last month. But they launched 3,907 drones, according to HUR, with the aim of maximum depletion of Ukraine’s air defenses. 

Meanwhile, HUR suspects that as well as planning to redouble assaults in Ukraine’s Donetsk, Russian generals are considering mounting new offensives in the occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

“If Russia succeeds, the threat of conducting assault actions, reconnaissance missions, and further reducing the range of Russia’s artillery and multiple launch rocket systems targeting our infrastructure will significantly increase,” Skibitsky said.

The bulk of the Ukraine aid committed by former President Joe Biden under a Presidential Drawdown Authority was delivered before Donald Trump took office on Jan. 20. However, about $3.8 billion is still unused — much of that was meant for the delivery of NATO-standard ammunition.

If that stops, Ukraine faces an eventual crunch—but not an immediate one.

Last year, European countries delivered about 1 million 155 mm artillery shells to Ukraine, while the U.S. sent 3 million.

“We’re as ready to keep fighting as we used to. Nothing has changed but our perception of America. We used to see the United States as a symbol of freedom and hope, now we see it turned into Russia No. 2,” Vitaly, a Ukrainian soldier serving in Russia’s Kursk region, told POLITICO.

Veronika Melkozerova contributed reporting.